This is by far the most ‘brazen’ challenge confronting the Pakistani military dictator in the history of his career. He stands at a junction where it seems that walls of his empire are crumbling from all sides. Does this mean an end of his career? If he has always been the ‘best bet’ for Pakistan, then who will be his successor and how successful would that successor be? This are significant questions that the country is facing at this point.....

1. The crumbling walls of Musharraf’s empire

It seems that in the past two weeks Musharraf’s whole empire has crumbled one wall after the other. There are many who describe his action against the chief justice as the reason. However, while that may well be the point of saturation which acted as the final push, there have been other major issues which are equally responsible for this upheaval.

1. The issue of ‘forced disapperances’

Pakistan has been experiencing a case of state backed ‘forced disappearances’ for a long time now. While in the news since last year, these kidnappings and arrests have been ongoing since long ago. Many controversial arrests and detentions have been made by state agents of allegedly innocent people. While the families of these victims have wailed their hearts out for their loved ones, their pleas have gone unheard. The victims, each arrested on the pretext of the ‘war on terrorism’ and their presence as enemical to the state. Human rights body Amnesty International has taken out several reports regarding their heinous findings about this issue. To quote one of their reports, Pakistan: Human rights ignored in the ‘war on terror’,

In Pakistan, torture and ill-treatment are endemic; arbitrary and unlawful arrest and detention are a growing problem; extrajudicial executions of criminal suspects are frequent; well over 7,000 people are on death row and there has recently been a wave of executions. Discriminatory laws deny the basic human rights of women and of minority groups.

Although not confirmed, the independent non-governmental organisation, the Pak Institute for Peace Studies in May 2006 stated that over 1,000 people have been arrested in the ‘war on terror’ in Pakistan. US President George W Bush has said on several occasions that ‘our ally, Pakistan, has killed or captured more than 600 terrorists’. Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has mentioned some 700 terror suspects arrested. All of these reflect the blatant abuse of power by Musharraf which was so impervious that noone could really do much about it.

2. The issue of Taliban and its Afghanistan border

Since last month, reports have been flowing in regarding the increasing Taliban and Al-Qaeda attacks in Afghanistan, as well as Pakistan. There have been alleged arrests in Pakistan of high level terrorists, but these too have been largely questionable. The volatile border that Pakistan shares with Afghanistan is also a major irritant. In order to control cros border insurgency, Musharraf proposed several plans over a period of time, however, none of these seems to be working out.

Then came the ultimatum from the US. This was a major sign of the growing questionability of Musharraf’s reign. Pakistan, the once trusted ally of the US, was now all of a sudden being accused of housing terrorists and training hubs of the Taliban and AL-Qaeda militants.

Analysts have offered that if Pakistan heeds to US demands, it actually risks internal revolt. On the other hand, if it doesn’t, Musharraf will probably be overthrown. This became a growing reason of internal brewing of tension within Pakistan.

3. The sacking of the Chief Justice: The saturation point

Then came the unfateful strike of Musharraf which may well become the reason of his own demise: his action against the Chief Justice of Pakistan. Gen Musharraf has been trying to force the chief justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, a feisty judge with a history of confronting the government, to resign. But in a rare show of defiance by a civilian official, Justice Chaudhry has refused to go, triggering the first big confrontation with the president from the Pakistani establishment.

It is not a coincidence according to me, that the judge being sacked is an active defender of human rights and was persistently involved in solving the case of the peculiar disappearences. While his strategies may have paid off in the past, analysts have begun to say he has badly miscalculated this time. Abbas Nasir, editor of Dawn newspaper said

It was an arrogant move that has eroded his credibility. Everything that has happened since reeks of panic

Is this really the end?

A lot of doubt has creeped up on Musharraf’s reign, however, it still may not point to an end of his career, at least not for sure. He has been getting away with a lot, and he just might be able to wriggle through this time too. There are a lot of factors which are at play, and they all must be considered before any conclusion may be inferred from the above. So the question remains, Is the best bet for Pakistan (Musharraf) still the best bet? Is he the ‘necessary evil’??

via: The Guardian