Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki has come up with some good news for the Americans. The Iraqi government will release many of the prisoners (not those belonging to the Al Qaeda, of course) presently in the country’s jails. The idea is to foment better ties between the Shias and Sunnis.
But, such cosmetic measures will not be enough to make much of a difference. Many issues remain unresolved. Maliki’s government has done nothing to encourage the return of Baathists, who have become untouchables after Saddam’s fall, into the government and security agencies.
No measures have been taken in the direction of passing an oil-sharing bill, which would address the question of sharing of oil revenues between the various communities. The Maliki government is still seen as a Shia government and the Sunnis remain aloof and sullen. The arming of Sunnis in Anbar province by the US has only facilitated the formation of a strong well-equipped Sunni fighting force.
Shia strongman Moqtada al Sadr is maintaining a studied silence. He has called on his fighters to lay low and wait for the US ’surge’ to subside.
In fact, things are expected to come to a boil after the US force-levels fall to their earlier levels. The subdued Al Qaeda will then come back with a vengeance. Unless Maliki does something to get the Sunnis and Kurds on board his ship, clashes between the communities will resume.
The Kurds remain intransigent as ever. They are striking deals with foreign companies, independently of Baghdad. If the PKK-Turkish clashes escalate, the consequences will undo whatever good the US occupation has achieved since 2003.
The coming year is going to be a make-or-break year for Iraq.
