Only Politics

Just as many were writing obituaries to Robert Mugabe’s political career, the ruthless Zimbabwean dictator is fighting back and plans to fight to the very end, to retain his terrifying status as one of the world’s most ruthless and cruel dictators. Robert Mugabe’s Zanu party will now contest the results of 16 parliamentary seats which could just bring them back to power. In a show of strength, 400 of Robert Mugabe’s veteran fighters, the band of men who were responsible for driving the whites out of Zimbabwe took out a march in the Zimbabwean capital of Harare. The 84 year old dictator also held a meeting with top officials in which he is said to have launched a last ditch attempt to cling on to power. All this in the backdrop of the opposition party MDF asserting confidently that it would form the government. The meeting also ended with Zanu party declaring Robert Gabriel Mugabe to be it’s candidate to challenge MDC’s Morgan Tsivangirai in the Presidential run off that is scheduled to be held in the near future. The Zimbabwean election commission also has postponed April 19th’s second phase of polling making it even more of a certainty that the Zanu party could rig the ballot. Raids on opposition party and the arrest of two foreign journalists also is making Zimbabwe’s public very tense and restive. Only the coming days will tell wether Robert Mugabe is ousted or he goes out fighting or worse, he comes back to misrule Zimbabwe.

New York based Human Rights Watch has come up with a startling report that even after 5 years of continuing conflicts, women and girls still face risks of rape and sexual assault by rebels and the soldiers in Darfur. Sudanese army and Peace keeping forces are doing very little to stop the continued attacks on the vulnerable section of the Darfur population. Pro-government militia has been accused of threatening the civilians by molesting their womenfolk in the UN report. Sudanese government has denied all the charges. More than 200,000 people have died ever since conflicts broke out in Darfur in 2003. Rape and sexual assault has been a permanent feature of the conflict. The report says soldiers have joined the hands of Janjaweed rebels to spread terror by raping and looting in West Darfur and in fact the patterns of attack have changed. Women and girls are attacked even during the calm phase. They are never safe. Sudanese government says it is committed to stop these severe human rights violations, but it does very little. Most of the cases go unreported. The presence of UN Peace keeping force and African Union Peacekeepers does act like a deterrent but that doesn’t really end the threat. Vigil and night patrolling needs to be extended to all the areas. Darfur also needs more women police officers, medical aid and sensitive procedures to help the victims of continuing violence. Such are the primitive ways of conflicts. In almost all war zones the women and children are the worst victims. They are used as scapegoats in the games of power. Women and girls are attacked whenever they venture out to collect firewood or food. They are targets of both rebels and the militia. More than 2 million people have fled Darfur in last five years. When will peace return to the land?

With Kenya’s post-election violence still underway, it is a saddening reality that families are being broken due to several abductions, burning of houses and other human rights violations. It seems Kenya remains in a desperate situation and its government hopeless in respondiing to the needs of the people. What’s making things worse, many officials are selfishly focused more on forming a coalition government and seemingly setting aside the welfare of the thousands of homeless Kenyans wandering in the dark, unsanitary camps in the region. There is nothing wrong of planning things out in the Cabinet; but make sure the pressing problems of the displaced Kenyans are given much attention. The plan of creating 40 ministries in the Kenyan government will certainly put budget to question of whether this ambitious forecast can sustain the basic needs of the refugees as expenses would be high to provide salaries and all other logistics for the newly elected officials. As things begin to complicate in Kenya, its helpless people doubt the capacity of its government to sustain their daily needs and start to lose hope over their condition, especially now that the rainy season is complicating their daily battles to survive. Several sicknesses and diseases like colds and pneumonia have caused the death of some refugees living in tents with insufficient food supply and medical care. Are we looking for possible survival of these marginalized Kenyans? Or we are only waiting for their lives to end? Whatever assistance that Kenya will get is a big thing to treasure for the many families who are hoping to overcome these hardships in life. Donor countries will be very much welcome to give anything they can provide to the losing hearts of the refugees. Their hope becomes blurred as their government seems helpless to give what they badly needed.

Since the invasion of Iraq five years ago, Europe was concerned about the radicalisation of its Muslim-dominated societies mounting a serious challenge to long standing European democratic values. Countries such as France, Britain, Germany, Spain and Italy feared that the Iraq war would result in young European Muslim boys getting attracted to the call of Jihad in the Islamic world. While Britain and Spain faced the consequences of a radical Islamic threat over the past few years, French and other European security agencies are claiming for the very first time that the threat of Muslim boys travelling to Iraq and returning home to launch attacks on western interests has subsided. According to French security agencies, the number one deterrent for would-be Jihadists has been the immense logistical challenges involved in travelling to Iraq. There is no fixed transit point for these men to travel to Iraq and wage a suicidal war against coalition troops. Due to immense international pressure and serious economic consequences, countries such as Syria and Iran are not in a position to entertain foreign fighters. Secondly, the war in Iraq has proved to be a confusing one for European radicals who feel that the war is all about killing fellow Muslims rather than Americans. Due to lack of fighting skills and good Arabic language skills, many of these would-be insurgents are unwelcome in Iraq. Having said this, the European intelligence officials have warned that the threat of radical Islamic terror attacks are always possible given Europe’s moderate democratic values. Most of the ethnic Muslim citizens in Europe have roots in North Africa and Pakistan. Their failure to settle among the normal European societies in addition to respective government’s failure to address the ethnic situation have always posed an immense ideological threat to the continent. Yet European politicians and security agencies are confident that tough immigration laws and sweeping law-enforcement rules have led to a decline in terror threat. According to Armando Spataro, Italy’s senior counter-terrorism magistrate, It’s impossible to give numbers, but fewer young people are leaving Italy and other European countries to wage jihad in Iraq. I’m convinced part of the reason is that we’ve been successful in arresting and prosecuting people, even before they go to Iraq.Yet political and security analysts believe that Europe, particularly France, Italy and Britain would always be under a cloud of terror threats due to political and military involvements in Islamic countries. Moreover, the threat would be more of a social nature in the coming days until and unless Europe’s Muslims are able to adjust themselves to the continent’s moderate social and democratic values.

Kenya is in troubled waters again with the collapse of the Kofi Annan-brokered political truce between the government and the opposition. Despite the best efforts of Mr.Annan, the former UN secretary-general, it seems President Mwai Kibaki and his bitter opposition rival Raila Odinga cannot trust each other when it comes to sharing power in Nairobi. The collapse of the unity talks could have disastrous consequences for Kenya domestically and regionally. With the news of the failure of the power-sharing deal opposition supporters have launched street protests across the capital and ordinary Kenyans believe that the security situation of the country could again spiral out of control with severe repurcussions. According to political analysts, the domestic political impasse is taking its toll on the Kenyan economy and the democratic stability as a whole. The post-election bloodshed is still fresh in the minds of the Kenyans and if the situation does not improve in the near future, the economy would be the hardest hit and there are already speculations that the normally stable east African country could head into a civil turmoil leading to regional instabily of massive proportions. Western diplomats and independent observers feel that Kenya’s politicians are the only ones to be blamed for the current political vacuum. According to one such diplomat, We are seriously concerned. Even before the breakdown(of truce), it seemed as if the parties were more concerned with sharing the spoils of power rather than governing the country effectively.President Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga are two most influential politicians in Kenya without any doubt and herein lies the problem. At the moment it seems without the cooperation and coordination of these two leaders there is no way for Kenya to get out of this political mess. Yet, given the long standing bitter rivalry between the two, many are pessimistic about a potential long-term political deal to get the country back on a stable political track. The problem with Kenyan politics, according to local journalists and political scientists, is that the system is utterly corrupt with senior politicians favouring their own ethnic supporters and voters to bolster their respective positions. The problem between President Kibaki and Raila Odinga lies in the sharing of cabinet posts but even if they had agreed it is hard to believe how they could create a functioning government until the next general election with so much personal differences between the two. With renewed tension in Kenya, Kofi Annan could be back in the country to resolve the issue not just for the sake of Kenyans but for the region as a whole. An unstable Kenya is disaster for the whole of east Africa. Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Congo and Southern Sudan all need the port at Mombasa to get fuel, food and humanitarian goods through to their respective populations and these countries could easily slide into war if the economies suffer as a result of the Kenyan instability.

Ahead of an expected second round of presidential polls, Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe has unleashed his trusted terror units across the country to intimidate opposition supporters and the suffering population as a whole in a bid to hang on to his battered political hold. With March 29 election results still not officially declared by the government, the opposition fears that the Mugabe-regime is now upto its dirty tricks to deny opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai and his MDC party a legitimate victory. Mr.Tsvangirai and his party have alleged that the delay of the publication of the results is a way to allow Robert Mugabe to declare a runoff and give ruling Zanu-PF militants time to intimidate and voters and ensure the President a second round victory. With Zimbabwe’s economy collapsing by the day, there are no signs of relief for the suffering population. Yet, the Zimbabweans have shown immense patience since the elections in their wait for an outcome. But many suspect the continous delay in the announcement of the results to be a sign of a Mugabe plot to destroy any opposition hope. In the words of a MDC activist, armed men and self-proclaimed war veterans are unleashing a campaign of terror against the people of Zimbabwe. According to the opposition activist, They(armed men)warned people that if they voted for the opposition they would be killed. They had AK-47s, shotguns, guns in their belts. People were very afraid. They were saying they were going to show an example to anyone supporting MDC and they asked the people to point out who they were but no one did. Their behaviour was inhuman.Political analysts and western diplomats blame Zimbabwe’s neighbours and especially South Africa for not doing enough to pressurise President Mugabe. South African President Thabo Mbeki has come under severe international criticism for his theory of ‘quiet diplomacy’ on dealing with Harare. Opposition parties fear that any delay on the part of the international community to deal firmly with Mugabe could lead to a waste of great opportunity in overthrowing him from his political den. Latest reports from Zimbabwe suggest independent reporters are getting arrested and opposition interests are being raided by paramilitary forces in a show of political intimidation. The situation is in danger of spiralling out of control plunging the depleted contry into further turmoil and anarchy. Few hours back, the Associated Press has reported that Zambia has called an emergency meeting of southern African leaders to find a way out to resolve the political crisis in neighbouring Zimbabwe and let us hope the regional powers come up with something concrete and long-term to deal with the situation.

In a chilling investigation report, the Bulgarian government is accused of having high-level links with the organised crime world and the report further highlighted that the organised crime funds are channelled to various terrorist organisations in Lebanon and the Middle East. According to the investigation by MPs into corruption in the Interior Ministry, Bulgarian crime groups engaged in trafficking…drugs sometimes work together with Arab citizens linked to terrorist organisations. We can make the conclusion that part of the money accumulated from drug trafficking is used to finance the work of terrorist organisations such as Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and Christian militias. The report proves the dangerous nexus between organised crime and terrorism right around the world. This particular Bulgarian report is just the tip of the iceberg as international terror groups take the help of the organised crime world to finance their respective causes. In a report late last year, Italian investigators confirmed that Al-Qaeda was using the Naples-based Camorra mafia to move its operatives through Europe to safe houses in cities such as Paris, London, Rome, Madrid, Berlin, etc. The Camorra-Al Qaeda alliance is a growing proof of an increasing link-up between international terrorism and organised crime. This nexus has truly presented a serious challenge to law-enforcement and security agencies across the world. To druglords and criminals, dealing with terrorists is just another business proposition but the illicit funds are helping international terror to spread its uncompromising web across the globe. The FARC, Colombia’s largest guerilla group runs its revolution against Bogota parallel to a lucrative illegal drug trade. With an estimated annual profit of $400 million, the FARC is suspected of exchanging drugs for arms with international terror groups. The age of globalisation has certainly aided this nexus with the help of concepts such as free trade, economic integration, expansion of technology, etc. Drug trafficking is not the only illicit sector in which the mafia and the terrorists collaborate. Kidnapping, human trafficking, counterfeiting money and CDs, extortion are other lucrative ways of making money. According to Arnaud de Borchgrave, head of the Center for Strategic and International Studies Transnational Threat Initiative, The most profitable form of human smuggling for the terror-organized crime alliance is sex slavery. They come from eastern Europe and from as far as China and Burma. Go to Liege and Mons and Antwerp. You find them everywhere. And the profits kick back. The nexus between international terror groups and organised crime is set to change the pattern of the war on terror, security experts believe. The emphasis will now be more on the financial contacts between terror outfits and the mafia with various corrupt governments around the world and leading businessmen coming under the security scanner. The Bulgarian investigation report is set to open up a pandora’s box when it comes to tackling both international mafia and terrorism.

Its very sad to see the poor cattle ranchers of the Amazon region, especially of Alta Floresta being sandwiched between the Government’s simultaneous efforts at development and conservation of the natural resources. There was a time when the cattle ranchers from southern Brazil were asked to occupy the Amazon region to prevent foreign colonization. The innocent farmers took pride in establishing their ranches in that region and their work in developing agricultural land and products in that region was looked upon as a significant effort towards development of the region. The farmers and cattle ranchers were looked upon as people doing highly patriotic work. But, now the scenario has changed entirely in the Amazon region. Brazil is considered as the hub of biodiversity and environment conservation. As a result, the cattle ranchers who were once considered as sons of the soil, doing a great favor to the country by preventing colonization are being mercilessly shooed away from the major parts of this region and being relegated to some very small and obsolete parts of the rain forest. These poor innocent ranchers feel that they are being looked upon as criminals trying to violate the rules of the government. How can the government be so very illogical in its dealings? It is when the basic necessities for survival are not met with that man turns into a beast. Any government should aim to gain the credibility of its people, not lose its credibility and dignity in return.

With Raul Castro succeeding his brother Fidel Castro as the President of Cuba, Cubans were apprehensive whether this was a continuation of the old Castro regime or whether new changes will usher in. However, Raul Castro has proved that he is more liberal than his brother was as he lifted bans prohibiting Cubans from owning cell phones, staying in luxury hotels and buying DVD players, computers and modern kitchen appliances. Moving away from the concept of creating an unrealistic egalitarian social structure, Raul Castro is more bent on providing comfort to the lives of the Cubans. In a latest effort to solve the housing problem of the country, Cubans will now get title to state-owned houses. The housing reform allows government employees to keep state-controlled houses after leaving their jobs. The new decree possibly gives title deed of the houses to the occupants giving them the right to pass on the property to their children and relatives. Thousands of Cubans will benefit from this move, including army personnel, sugar workers, construction workers, teachers and doctors. However, Cuban laws do not allow the occupants to sell their homes to anyone other than the government. The government is also expected to do away with wage limits that will allow Cubans to earn more depending on their productive capacity. The average salary of the Cubans is $19.50 per month. Despite being a hardcore Fidel Castro loyalist, Raul Castro is also called the ‘practical Castro’. According to Brian Latell, a senior researcher at the University of Miami’s Cuba Institution and author of the book After Castro, Raul Castro would try to adopt a China-type economic model. While continuing with many of the ideologies of the harsh political regime he would allow more private enterprise and loosen foreign investment rules.

Is Raul Castro willing to bring changes to the Cuban social, political and economic structure, stepping away from the shadow of his iconic elder brother Fidel Castro? Cuba under Raul Castro is somewhat different from Fidel Castro’s Cuba. The shelves in the stores in Havana are stashed with DVD players, computers, televisions, cell phones and household appliances. Cubans can walk in the hotels that were earlier reserved only for foreign tourists. Laws are being eased to allow Cubans to travel abroad with fewer restrictions, buy and sell their own cars and even possess their own homes. Farming reforms have granted farmers the right to manage unused land for profit. However, has the average Cuban benefited from these economic freedoms ushered in by Raul Castro? For the average Cuban who manages his life on a paltry salary, acquiring the electronic devices is still a matter of luxury. Despite of fifty years of rigid socialist system it is nonetheless true that economic and social disparities did exist in the Castro-land. There was a class of Cubans who were definitely better off than the majority of their comrades. Cubans who received remittances from relatives abroad, Cubans who were close to the people in power and Cubans engaged in unauthorized moneymaking operations were economically better off under Fidel Castro’s regime. The new set of economic liberalization will only give official recognition to this class. Cuba is following the China model. While allowing economic liberty the authorities in power will continue trampling democratic rights of the people of Cuba. While you can buy a rice-maker, you cannot ask for the release of political prisoners languishing in jail. In fact, the changes brought by Raul Castro would have been approved even by Fidel Castro as being imperative for the economic order of the country. Take for instance the agricultural reforms, with global food crisis and rise in food prices, food imports are costing dearer for the government. Under such circumstances to control food prices, Raul Castro had no alternative other than increasing domestic production by allowing concessions to its farmers. Cuba nonetheless remains the same even under Fidel Castro’s successor.