Only Politics

News from Bangkok would hit the headlines, as the arrival of a new political power is expected. Waves of democracy are on high spirits time after time, the generals of Thai are no exceptions to the concept. They have seized power 15 months ago during a revolution but now the sparks of elections are ahead. Sunday would be their day to instigate a Thailand civilian government. Stable democracy had not been the style of this country due to many political reasons followed by corruption. This has been the reason behind its takeover against a government lead by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. One could easily guess that Thailand is under its political gestation period, as political analysts predict a tension no matter who wins the election. Thaksin is considered as the most wanted but controversial political leader, no wonder he was ousted in 2006 by the generals. But debates prevail, as the support for a party that would bring him back to force would be appreciated by the Thai people. Not to deny the motive behind this support, the leader owns some credits. Targeting the poor and lower-middle class, Thaksin has commenced low-cost health care and debt forgiveness. Village funds had been another attractive scheme captivating the hearts of the people. Past had been on the hands of the generals now what would the parties do to regain power forever. Promises are on air now, projects are offered like packages in the name of ‘Urgent Operation Plan Doable in 99 Days.” They would slash prices and hold the sectors of education to irrigation for development. News is that they would censor media, during the election! Now would that stop us from giving news? Source credit: IHT

Kenya is heading for a change. President Mwai Kibaki is on the verge of defeat to a former political ally and leader of the Orange Democratic Movement(ODM), Raila Odinga. Early election results suggest that Mr.Odinga is leading President Kibaki by a comfortable margin and although there are still some results yet to be declared, it is mostly clear that the 76-year-old President might be voted out of the power. What has annoyed most of the Kenyans is the fact that corruption is considerably high within the political system of the country and ironically, it was ‘freeing the country from corruption’ slogan that brought Kibaki to power in 2002. Over the years, Kenyan parliamentarians have gained notoriety among Kenyans for arbitrarily increasing their salaries, while majority of ordinary people continue to struggle with meager wages and low standards of living. Furthermore, with the massive involvement of Kenyan youths in the election process, there is an indication that the country’s citizens want a young group of leaders to take Kenya forward into the future. Most of President Kibaki’s cabinet ministers are old political veterans who have failed to strike a chord with the current generation. But, one thing must be accepted — it is President Kibaki who brought life into Kenya’s vulnerable economy. But, in a nutshell, failed to reach out to the rural poor, who seemed to have been attracted by Raila Odinga’s poor-dominated campaign. If Mwai Kibaki goes on to lose the election, which is all set to happen in the next few hours, a trend is definitely in the making in Kenya whereby an incumbent administration, for the third time in a row would be defeated by a well-organized opposition. If this happens, all the more likely as said earlier, no sitting government in Kenya is likely to win any future general election or referendum. Image Source: Guardian

With 2007 nearing to its end, a marked decrease in violence has been noticed in Iraq. It is although a different matter, whether the uneasy calm will persist as Prime Minister Maliki has failed to bring the different communities politically together. Returning to the much hailed decrease in fighting in the country, three major factors can be said to have caused the amelioration (besides the US ‘surge’).  The allying of Anbar Sunnis with the US  Call for inaction by Moqtada al Sadr to his followers  The ‘Iran factor’ We shall see that the second cause too is linked with Iran. Iran has ambitions in the Middle East and so has been actively involved in Iraq. It has great influence on both the major Shia groups in the country, Moqtada’s Mahdi army and Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC). It has been actively arming and training these Shia armies for a long time to increase the headaches of the US. This has been one of the main reasons for the present US-Iran clash. But recently, US officials have said (albeit reluctantly) that Iran has decreased the flow of arms into Iraq and this has contributed to a corresponding drop in violence. The decision to do so (go easy on Iraq) had been taken at the highest levels of Iranian government. Why? The answer lies in the gun battle between Mahdi army and SIIC fighters in August this year at Karbala, which left 52 people dead. Iran was shaken at these developments as many Shias were amongst those killed. It felt, the monsters it had created (armed Shia groups) were proving to be loose cannons and going out-of-control. It was then that Iran decided to back off slightly in Iraq. It forced its protege, Moqtada al Sadr, to rein in his men and also tightened arms flow into the country. The moment Iran wants, it can turn on the tap again. US forces will then have to face increased violence again and it will be back to square one. The US Iraq strategists will have to factor in this possibility. They have no reason to be complacent. Iran still holds all the trump cards in the game called Iraq. Image

Awaiting an independence day The battle between autonomy and complete independence has reached its finishing stages close to the shores of the Adriatic. The autonomy lobby includes Serbia backed by the Russia while the independence lobby is filled with allied westerners like the European Union and the United States. Yesterday, the deadline for the extended negotiations on the future status of Kosovo ended and a new countdown for an eventual independence began. International negotiators from the US, EU and Russia confirmed the failure of talks, in their report to the UN. The people of Kosovo, a strong 90% ethnic Albanian majority, are likely to declare independence soon, with the support of the European Union. Russia meanwhile is favoring another round of negotiations, in principle, launching a desperate attempt to veto a likely Kosovo independence. Serbia hopes its ally would be able to win time. Kosovo Geography Kosovo, a Serbian province in the South, has been under the United Nations administration since 1999, when the international efforts pushed the Serb perpetrators out of the area. Since then, marathon meetings were held to decide its fate. Serbia does not favor an independent Kosovo and is wiling to grant autonomy. However, the western powers are pushing for independence in their efforts to corner Russia, like they have done in other parts of Europe through color revolutions. Now, with the last date for negotiations passed, a likely full-independence of Kosovo looms large over Serbia. Kosovo’s Albanians expect independence this year One problem that has been responsible for decades of disorder in the Balkans is the ethnic diversity with out any unity. It has resulted in complete disintegration of Yugoslavia, culminating in a likely Kosovo split very soon. 90% of Kosovo’s population is ethnic Albanian while the remaining ten percent form a Serbian minority. To compound problems further, the ethnic issue is now turning an identity drama. The Albanians themselves are yet to accept themselves a ‘Kosovar’, while they still look at Republic of Albania for their roots. Some Albanian Muslims, who form a significant majority in Kosovo, even look at the Middle East in search of their bases. Not many have begun to acknowledge the identity ‘Kosovar’ Hashim Thaci, the incoming Kosovo prime minister who was the head of the rebel Kosovo Liberation Army, recently said: “A Kosovo identity does not exist. But the taboo is beginning to crack. While the search for an identity gains momentum, another serious question has begun to knock the doors of the future constitution makers. Will Kosovo be secular? Voices have already been gathering supporters to overcome ethnic and religious sentiments to forge a secular state. A recent flag design contest also buttressed the fact. Agim Ceku, Kosovo’s outgoing prime minister, argued in an interview that …it was essential for Kosovo to forge a secular nation and draft a constitution like America’s which bestows universal rights on all of citizens. For sometime now even symbols have begun to enter the competing identity scene. Examples include monuments, statutes of KLA (Kosovo Liberation Army) soldiers, the Dardania design and many more. In search of a future In a nut shell, while Kosovars stand on the verge of a sure independence, the real challenge now would be to address and resolve the problems of identity and ethnicity while flying a secular flag high. It is also important to understand that, while the resentment against Serbians emerged out of a perceived Milosevic (Former Yugoslavia President) misbehavior, today Kosovars need to move past those memories and look forward at building a culturally secure, economically forward and a politically stable nation state. They cannot afford an ethnic conflict repeat anymore News Source: Herald Tribune, Yahoo News Image Credits: [1] [2] [3] [4] Thanks

Georgia is the latest country among several former Soviet states to get into a new political crisis. It is hardly surprising to see that political turmoils in the Black Sea and Caucasian region have an inevitable Russian shadow over them. The basic reason for this instability being Moscow’s rise as a superpower once again and the growing pro-western approach of countries such as Georgia. Georgia’s latest political crisis is the worst since the 2003 Rose Revolution, in which former president Eduard Shevardnadze(a former Soviet foreign minister who became president of Georgia after its independence in 1992)was replaced by the west-leaning Mikhail Saakashvili after a popular uprising. But things have changed dramatically since that time. President Saakashvili has been critical of Russian policies in the region and blames Moscow for the current unrest. Tbilisi is at loggerheads with the Kremlin over the alleged Russian involvement in breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgia has declared a 15-day state of emergency after violent street protests in the capital Tbilisi calling for the resignation of the president. This Georgia-Russia tension is not surprising particularly at a moment when president Vladimir Putin has made it a nationalistic agenda to expand Moscow’s influence into Europe, Black Sea, Caspian Sea and the Caucasus. Having talked about the Russian involvement in Georgian politics, it cannot be denied that Georgia’s closeness with the US, EU and NATO has irked the Russian leadership which considers the Saakashvili leadership as an agent of Washington and Brussels. The crisis in Georgia is the result of the country’s former defence minister Irakli Okruashvili’s accusations against president Saakashvili of corruption and murder plot against a prominent businessman. Former minister Okruashvili has since left the country to avoid Georgian authorities. Another factor working in stirring up political uncertainty in many of the regional former Soviet states like Georgia, the Ukraine, Azerbaijan, etc, is the fact that long-time Soviet rule in these countries has made people view new western-oriented regimes as signs of uncertainty rather than stability. Moreover, the new leaders of these young states like Georgia do not have the required experience to run a country and that is why president Saakashvili does not seem to accept the fact that neighbouring Russia is a superpower and Tbilisi needs to balance its relationship between the west and Moscow for the sake of its poor people who have to depend solely on Russian energy, which is a perfect diplomatic weapon at the hands of the Russians to stir up unrest. Link: Yahoo

In response to increasing incidences of crimes against women judiciary in all nations are becoming stricter and more intolerant towards offenders, even if they are prominent politicians or rich businessmen. A classic case relates to former Thai senator, Charlerm Promlert, who was accused of sex crimes against four underage girls about six years ago while he was in power. Promlert was sentenced to 36 years in prison on November 13 by the Supreme Court of Prathum Thani. The supreme court to which he appealed to reduce his sentence actually increased the punishment citing the fact that the accused was in power at the time of committing the crime and was fully aware of what he was doing. The case of Chalerm Promlert hit the national headlines six years ago and damaged the credibility of Thailand’s parliament. Promlert was the deputy speaker of the Senate when he was arrested in January 2001 after being accused of paying procurers to find him teenage girls for sex. He allegedly paid each teen 4,000 baht to have sex with him at a hotel in suburban Bangkok. All four girls were under 15 at the time. The initial hearings in the lower court resulted in a sentence of 20 years in prison. But when Promlert appealed to the Supreme Court of Prathum Thani, his sentence was increased to 36 years and the court said that the presiding judge felt Chalerm should be punished more severely because he broke the law while he was a senator. The defendant was well aware that what he did was a serious crime, the statement said. Compare the same scenario to India and we will find that there are thousands of cases of rape, sexual assault, wrongful confinement and even large scale sex scandals which have led to prominent politicians. But none of them have been arrested or convicted. Leave alone conviction, no cases have been filed against politicians in the Kerala sex scandal, the Anara Gupta case and other cases. Hopefully this incident should teach Indian law enforcement authorities about how impartial law should be. Source: TOI

The kingpin or sole emperor of globally renowned and feared Sicilian Mafia locally known as Cosa Nostra, Salvatore Lo Piccolo, was arrested on November 5. Police sources revealed that he had eluded arrest and was on the run for nearly a quarter of a century. Sixty five-year-old Lo Piccolo, was arrested along with his son Sandro (32) and two other Mafia bosses. The deadly quartet are among the top 30 most wanted Mafia suspects in Italy. They were arrested following a raid on a country house outside the Palermo (capital of Sicily). The four were meeting at the house to discuss future plans of the mafia. Sources said that though Police fired a few shots during the raid, nobody was injured. Salvatore Lo Piccolo is also known as ‘The Baron,’ in mafia circles. He assumed the role of “boss of bosses” of mafia last year when Bernardo Provenzano, the former kingpin was arrested. We are really pleased with this operation because these people are not just fugitives but Mafia chiefs who were wielding immense power in all aspects: muscle, money and political. said anti-Mafia magistrate Francesco Messineo. Quite expectedly the government officials are relieved with the arrest of Lo Piccolo. I hope the arrest of Lo Piccolo will be a mortal, definitive blow to Cosa Nostra, said Salvatore Cuffaro, Sicily’s regional governor. This arrest is particularly significant because of the fact that the guilty were apprehended on the day when Sicilian citizenry pay tribute each year to the victims of the Mafia. The victims of the mafia included innocent bystanders, businessmen who refused to pay their extortion monies and also magistrates such as Giovanni Falcone and Paolo Borsellino, who succombed to bomb attacks in 1992. Lo Piccolo who has been evading police and the law since 1983, began his underworld career as a bodyguard for a Sicilian mobster, worked his way up the organisation to become the boss of bosses or the Kingpin of Sicilian Mafia after Provenzano’s arrest in 2006. He had to fighht Matteo Messina Denaro another mafia boss to take over the chief last year. But his position at the helm of underworld affairs has come to a premature ending, much to the relief of law makers, citizenry. Hopefully the crime graph in Italy will show a downward trend from now on. It is impossible to create a world free of crime, but the best responsible citizens can do is to make sure that all those with criminal tendencies are either reformed or safely incarcerated in protected areas. Source: Deccan Herald

A land of soccer and samba, Brazil was struggling to reduce its huge income and social gap until now. A recent study has revealed that the largest South American nation is one of the very few developing nations to have been able to reduce its economic inequality by almost 5%. But if we look into the matter closely, we would see that inspite of all the economic successes, there is lot more to achieve in a notoriously unequal country. Congratulations to the government of president Lula for going ahead with the economic policies that have helped in reducing the inequality, but has the reduction in inequality stopped the deadly gang wars that often rock some of the big cities of Brazil, especially Sao Paulo, the business and economic hub of Brazil. The ground situation is still very different and reports of deadly gunbattle between the Brazilian police and the mafia gangs make it difficult to believe that Brazil is on the path of economic renaissance. To many economists, Brazil’s inequality is more of a racial nature with the white Brazilians sitting high up in the social hierarchy whereas the majority of indigenous black people are languishing at the bottom indulging in anti-social activities. An earlier UNDP survey established that the richest 10% of Brazilians are 85 times wealthier compared to the 10% poorest people. Despite the high economic growth rate since leftist president Lula came to power, the crime rate in the country is one of the highest in the world. Critics have accused the government of not providing enough importance to growth of poverty and crime in the impoverished slums of Sao Paulo and Rio De Janeiro. This, many say, is an instance of poor income distribution rather than bridging of income inequality. Having said this, it is really a good sign to hear reports of growing scopes of education for the poor and and the role that some of Brazil’s famous soccer players are playing to make the country aware of the growing problems in the country’s poorest areas. Brazil’s booming tourism industry has the potential to decrease the country’s outstanding social problems apart from valuable foreign exchange earning by providing employment to local unemployed men and women. Certainly Brazil cannot afford to sit on its laurels and keep on working to further reduce the income gap which in turn would help in reducung the crime. Link: Newsweek Image Link: Idol

Russia continues to disappoint the west, particularly the United States, when it comes to its international and domestic policies. In an increasing proof of President Putin’s growing influence over Russian politics, Moscow has forced the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe(OSCE)to withdraw its election monitoring mission during next month’s Russian parliamentary elections. This is a clear sign that the Russians consider the OSCE as an organisation which works on the basis of western directions and has the potential to harm President Putin’s political ambitions, both at home and abroad. Russia views the OSCE’s role in the region as strictly western-oriented given the role the electoral watchdog had played in igniting massive protests in the former Soviet states of the Ukraine and Georgia which led to the overthrow of pro-Moscow governments. The Kremlin fears that the OSCE, backed by Washington and the European Union, could trigger a similar political uproar and unrest in Russia with its election assessments. While justifying the lack of cooperation meted out to the OSCE, Russia points out to the fact that the election observing organisation sends only a few of its observers to countries such as France and Poland during elections while concentrating the most on Moscow. According to the Kremlin this is a biased attitude on the part of the OSCE designed to interfere in the internal matters of member states such as Russia and to promote the political interests of the western governments. This ‘do not care’ attitude of the Russians towards the Europeans and the US shows how far Moscow has progressed, both politically and militarily, since those chaotic years after the fall of Communism in the 1990s. The OSCE was formed at that time to help Russia and other CIS nations follow the democratic path of western nations but under the able guidance of President Putin, Russia once again considers itself an autonomous European country(much like in the old communist days)ready to dictate world politics and reduce American influence. Now given the resurgence of the Kremlin, Russian political elite considers EU and particularly the OSCE to be too bureaucratic and socialist ready to destabilise the domestic harmony of other former Soviet states. President Putin earlier in the year had openly criticised the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights(ODIHR)for its hostile assessments of the political environments of former Soviet states and the latest jibe towards the OSCE by preventing a full-fledged election monitoring is a way of putting pressure on the Warsaw-based body to change its course of actions. Link: Telegraph

The Congolese conflict involving neighboring Rwanda is another illustration of armed African conflict resulting from ethnic hatred and greed. It is surprising that in this era of globalization the continent of Africa is still plagued by human problems that show no signs of abating. Leaders of war-ravaged African countries like Congo are corrupt, but powerful due to the immense natural wealth present in the region. Rebellions against various governments are common given the mass exploitation of the poor African people by corrupt politicians. The peace deal signed by the leaders of Congo and Rwanda in the Kenyan capital Nairobi to prevent a 1994-like genocide is the result of the constant UN and US pressures on both the countries. But, it would be a highly admirable achievement if fighting across the volatile eastern Congo region stops as a result of the current deal. Congo’s Kivu regions, particularly north Kivu is the hotbed of conflict. The Kivu region is one of the most fertile regions in Central Africa and as always the enormous and easily accessible natural wealth drew attentions of both Rwanda and Burundi. Furthermore, the mass migration of refugees from Rwanda and Burundi into the province of Kivu – resulting due to Rwandan genocide and the Burundian political crisis during the early 1990s – complicated the situation further. If we look into the broader politics involved in the region, then Nairobi peace deal sounds pretty ludicrous. This particular African problem is all about ethnic security and economic survival. The presence of Rwandan forces in Congolese territories is important for Kigali to protect the Tutsi population against Hutu rebels and to ensure the economic survival of the Rwandan regime by the exploitation of Congo’s precious natural wealth. The situation is further complicated by the fact that renegade Congolese rebel groups are fighting their own people for the control of the country. Infighting among the Congolese should stop first before any successful implementation of the peace deal can take place. The UN, US and the EU should find ways in stopping the economic degradation of the region and provide strict mandate to UN peacekeepers to disarm the conflicting parties. Link: NYtimes Image Link: Globalpolicy